Hockey
The Momentum Illusion
Carolina scored three goals in 39 seconds and the whole sport called it momentum. We checked 477 playoff goals to see if momentum is real, or just memory.
Published Work
NHL
The GSAx Paradox
The analytics community's preferred goaltending metric is less reliable than the one it was designed to improve. 550 consecutive-season pairs across 18 years explain why.
NHL
The .930 Mirage
1,869 goalie-seasons. 18 years. The year-to-year correlation for save percentage is r = 0.33. Only 11% of the variance is real. The rest is a mirage.
NHL
The Screening Test
17 drafts. 4,006 picks. One question: how good is the screening decision?
The Restoring Force
What the 180 Seconds After a Goal Against Actually Look Like
2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics
The Autonomic Frontier
Biathlon’s Hidden Dimension
NHL
The Colorado Problem
What the Best Team in Hockey Tells Us About the Limits of Any Single Metric
NHL
The Concentration Trap
Why the NHL's Most Disciplined Offenses Are Its Worst
NHL
What Shot Entropy Actually Measures
Eight seasons. 633,318 shots. One finding survived every statistical correction. Several others collapsed.