The GSAx Paradox
The analytics community's preferred goaltending metric is less reliable than the one it was designed to improve. 550 consecutive-season pairs across 18 years explain why.
Goaltending
The .930 Mirage
1,869 goalie-seasons. 18 years. The year-to-year correlation for save percentage is r = 0.33. Only 11% of the variance is real. The rest is a mirage.
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