The GSAx Paradox
The analytics community's preferred goaltending metric is less reliable than the one it was designed to improve. 550 consecutive-season pairs across 18 years explain why.
NHL
The .930 Mirage
1,869 goalie-seasons. 18 years. The year-to-year correlation for save percentage is r = 0.33. Only 11% of the variance is real. The rest is a mirage.
The Screening Test
17 drafts. 4,006 picks. One question: how good is the screening decision?
The Colorado Problem
What the Best Team in Hockey Tells Us About the Limits of Any Single Metric
The Concentration Trap
Why the NHL's Most Disciplined Offenses Are Its Worst
What Shot Entropy Actually Measures
Eight seasons. 633,318 shots. One finding survived every statistical correction. Several others collapsed.
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